Former CIA Officer: Iran's Nuclear Facilities Far From 'Obliterated'

Ceasefire & Diplomacy - Achieving a confirmed ceasefire requires official announcements from both Iran and Israel [2][3] - The previous nuclear agreement (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) demonstrated that diplomacy with Iran can be effective [16][17] - Israel is perceived to be sabotaging diplomacy to prevent any new agreement or rapprochement between the US and Iran [4][5][18][23] Nuclear Program Status - Iranian nuclear facilities, such as Fordo and Natanz, were not obliterated despite attacks [8][9] - Iran had relocated much of its stockpile of partially enriched uranium and centrifuge cascades before the attacks [9] - Iran has increased its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% since the US withdrew from the previous nuclear agreement in 2018 [13] - The Iranian nuclear program is dispersed and complex, making it difficult to eliminate entirely, even with attacks on key facilities [10] Motivations & Objectives - Israel initiated the conflict partly to sabotage US diplomacy with Iran, opposing any rapprochement [4][5] - Israel's broader strategic objective may involve weakening and creating chaos within Iran, rather than necessarily establishing a moderate democracy [18][19] - Israel may continue to pressure the US to remain militarily involved and prevent a new agreement with Iran [22][23] Potential Scenarios - Best-case scenario: A ceasefire holds for a significant period, and pressure is maintained to prevent a return to war [23] - Worst-case scenario: The ceasefire collapses quickly, leading to an endless war involving the US and escalating attacks on Iran [24]