Clearview's Kevin Book weighs in on crude oil falling on Iran-Israel ceasefire

Market Dynamics - Oil prices fell below $65 a barrel following a ceasefire in the Iran-Israel conflict, decreasing approximately 14% in two days [1] - The market experienced a geopolitical risk premium due to concerns about a potential supply shock [2] - The potential return of 600,000 barrels per day or more of Iranian crude could further drive selling pressure [3] Supply and Demand - OPEC has been adding supply for three successive months, exceeding demand expectations and contributing to market weakness [2] - Projections indicate a supply surplus of 1.5 million to 2 million barrels per day this year and next [7] Economic Factors - Trade risks, including potential resumption of reciprocal tariffs, exert downward pressure [5] - Rising costs for producers, potentially exacerbated by tariffs, coupled with weakening demand, raise concerns [6]