China Beige Book CEO: Saw a falloff 'in just about everything' in China's economy in June

China's Economic Slowdown - China Beige Book data indicates a broad slowdown in China's economy, with declines in manufacturing, consumption, and bank borrowing [3] - May data initially appeared positive due to tariff reductions and consumer trade-in programs, but subsequent data revealed a fall-off [2][3] Beijing's Policy Stance - Beijing seems less concerned about the economic situation and is intervening less aggressively than before [4] - This reduced concern is attributed to Beijing's confidence in its leverage in trade discussions with the United States [4] - China is easing rates and engaging in fiscal stimulus, but not to the extent that would be expected in an extreme downside scenario [5][6] Trade War Dynamics - China is perceived to be able to withstand more economic pain compared to Western democracies [8] - China is using export controls, particularly on rare earth magnets, to demonstrate leverage against the United States [8] - China feels it has presented a strong front in the trade war, reducing the immediate need for aggressive economic measures [9] Consumption and Manufacturing - Claims of China transforming into a mega consumer powerhouse are viewed skeptically [10][11] - China's weak domestic demand leads to increased exports and potential dumping of products on global markets [13][14] - Overcapacity in various sectors, including cars and EVs, contributes to the pressure to export [17] Overcapacity and Export Strategy - China's economic model, characterized by weak domestic consumption and strong supply-side support, results in overcapacity being channeled to the global market [17] - This overcapacity can be used strategically to exert leverage on adversaries like the United States, particularly in critical minerals [16]