Apollo's Zelter on Fed, Dollar US Exceptionalism

Federal Reserve & Economic Policy - The market has largely absorbed the impact of tariffs, with focus shifting to the US deficit issue [5][6][7][8] - The speaker believes the Federal Reserve conversation is important, with rates potentially remaining stickier and higher than anticipated [13] - The market is currently pricing in three to three and a half rate cuts for the remainder of the year, but the speaker is skeptical, anticipating potentially only one cut [12] - The speaker views the recent dollar decline as more of a technical correction due to unhedged global investors rather than a long-term impact on the US economy [9][10] Investment & Market Trends - Global investors are returning to US assets, attracted by the strength and scale of the US economy [19] - Private capital is increasingly driving the economy, playing a significant role in financing, including a $45 billion (four and a half billion dollars) private capital financing deal for a nuclear power plant build in the UK and Germany [20][21][22] - The speaker does not see any immediate red flags in valuation underwriting, noting the US economy's resilience [18][21] - The speaker anticipates approximately 2% growth with about 3% inflation for the fundamental economy [36] European Market & Private Capital - European leadership is embracing private capital to address CapEx needs in areas like transmission lines, transportation, AI, and data centers [26][27] - European banks are increasingly focusing on ROIC and shareholder value, aligning more with US practices [25][31] - Germany aims to grow its economy from $4 trillion (four trillion dollars) to $6 trillion (six trillion dollars), embracing private capital alongside government spending [22][23]