Former Amb. Nicholas Burns: Don't think the U.S. and China are close to a comprehensive trade deal

Trade Deal Progress & Outlook - US and China announced a framework agreement on rare earth metals, seen as a positive step but not a comprehensive deal, more like a truce [2] - Comprehensive trade deal negotiations may take another 2-3 months, potentially reaching an agreement in the autumn, contingent on leaders' meeting [3] - China needs a trade deal due to slower GDP growth (estimated 3-4% vs stated 5%), declining foreign direct investment, and reliance on the US as its biggest export market [6][7] Tariff Rates & Sectoral Issues - Significant difference exists between 30% and 20% tariff rates for businesses [8] - US maintains 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs, 50% on semiconductors, and 25% on lithium batteries [9] - Sectoral tariffs are unlikely to be removed due to China's attempts to dump excess manufactured products like lithium batteries, EVs, and solar panels [10] Competitive Landscape & Geopolitical Strategy - BYD's competitiveness in the auto industry is a concern, potentially dominating markets outside the US due to tariffs [10][11] - Aligning with European, Japanese, and South Korean allies is crucial to create leverage against China, as they share similar trade concerns [11][12][13] - High tariffs on allies diminish their incentive to join the US in pressing China on trade issues; Japan, EU, and US account for 60% of global GDP [12][13] TikTok & Technology Restrictions - TikTok is likely to be part of the trade deal or related to it, requiring Chinese government approval [17] - China alluded to the US reducing or dropping technology restrictions in exchange for the rare earth deal, but the US has not confirmed this [19]