Apollo's Torsten Slok: Peak uncertainty is behind us, but these risk factors are still on horizon

Economic Outlook & GDP - Consensus view, including CBO and Fed, anticipates GDP growth slowdown due to tariffs and headwinds like student loan payments restarting [3][4] - Potential for stagflation exists if tariffs of $400 billion lead to either higher inflation or lower earnings [2][5] - US GDP growth may slow to 1%-15% in the next 12 months, but the US growth outlook remains stronger than other countries like Europe [14][15] Trade & Tariffs - Tariffs raising $400 billion could significantly impact S&P 500 earnings, potentially reducing them by 20% if companies absorb the costs [2] - Trade remains a significant risk factor, particularly regarding who bears the burden of the $400 billion in tariffs [2] US Dollar & Fed Policy - The dollar experienced a 10% decline in trade-weighted terms over the past six months [7] - The market's pricing for Fed rate cuts this year is considered too aggressive; only one rate cut is expected [8] - The Fed committee, not solely the chair, decides on interest rates and QE, limiting the chair's individual influence [11][12] - The outlook for the dollar in the second half of the year is brighter, partly due to Section 899 being resolved [6][15] Labor Market - The labor market is currently holding up well, with jobless claims remaining relatively stable [9][10]