Circle would be the largest regulated stablecoin if GENIUS Act passes, says Bernstein's Chuugani

Circle's Valuation and Analyst Opinion - Bernstein initiated coverage on Circle with a price target of $230, $50 higher than the current price, considering it a must-hold for investors [1] - Concerns exist regarding Circle's valuation, which has increased by 500% since its IPO earlier this month [1] Stablecoin Market and Circle's Position - Stablecoins are viewed as digital dollars on the internet, evolving from a money rail for crypto to a broader internet money rail with implications for payments and financial services [3] - The stablecoin market is projected to grow from $225 billion to $4 trillion over the next decade, based on use cases in crypto, tokenized capital markets, payments, and financial services [4] - Circle, once the Genius Act is passed, is expected to be the largest regulated stablecoin, providing it with a regulatory edge and a significant head start over competitors due to its $61 billion of liquidity [4][5] Circle's Business Model and Revenue Streams - Stablecoins are now defined as payment stablecoins, 100% backed by demand deposits, bank deposits, repos, and US Treasuries, ensuring they maintain a 1:1 peg to the dollar [8] - Circle generates revenue by holding the yield against its stablecoin collateral and enabling infrastructure for the broader ecosystem, facilitating the use of digital dollars for payments and financial services [9] - Circle's revenue streams include float income, influenced by the rate environment, and fee income from the Circle payments network, which is expected to grow over the next 5-10 years [10] Future Growth and Demand - The total demand for stablecoins, driven by various use cases, is expected to offset potential declines in float income due to rate decreases [11][12] - The conviction in Circle's potential stems from the overall demand for stablecoins and the bottom-up industry demand [12]