ECB Shouldn't Be Complacent About Inflation, Nagel Says

Monetary Policy Stance - The ECB believes it is near its target after hiking rates ten times and lowering them eight times, but should not be complacent [2] - The ECB is taking a meeting-to-meeting, data-dependent approach due to uncertainty [4] - The ECB considers the current interest rate level to be in neutral territory, around 2% [5][6] - A rate cut would be stimulative [4] Economic Outlook & Risks - Volatility in energy markets indicates a need for caution [3][8] - Trade frontloading may have contributed to good numbers in the first quarter [12] - Uncertainty surrounding trade and tariffs could negatively impact the European economic outlook [15] - The European economy is in a fragile situation, making it vulnerable to uncertainty [16][17] Euro's Role & Stability - The current price level of the euro against the dollar is close to the long-term mean [9] - The ECB is not overly focused on the exchange rate, but considers it as one factor among many affecting inflation [10][11] - Strengthening the capital market union and banking union is crucial to making the euro more attractive to international investors [23][25] - A more relevant euro could contribute to a stable global environment alongside the US dollar [26]