CEA Chair Stephen Miran: We're going to get Pres. Trump's tax bill over the line

Tax and Spending Bill & Economic Impact - The alternative to passing the bill is a $4 trillion tax hike on American workers and businesses, potentially leading to recession and increased debt [3] - Passing the bill is expected to stimulate the economy through investment incentives like full expensing on new factories and equipment, potentially leading to reshoring and manufacturing resurgence [4] - The bill is projected to reduce the deficit by approximately 85% to 11 trillion over time [5] - The CBO's deficit calculations are considered incomplete as they do not fully account for economic growth, tariff revenue, and administrative reductions resulting from the bill [5] Revenue Generation - The bill is expected to generate approximately $4 trillion in increased revenue over a decade from improved economic growth due to tax incentives, deregulation, and increased investment [8] - Tariff revenue is projected to contribute $3 trillion over a decade towards deficit reduction [6][9] - Spending reductions from government efficiency efforts are estimated at $15 trillion over a decade [9] - Reduced interest expenses due to decreased borrowing are expected to contribute $15 trillion over a decade [9] Tariff Policy & Trade - The US has various tariff programs in place, each with different justifications, including national security, anti-dumping measures, and addressing trade deficits, all of which generate revenue [12] - Current tariff levels are close to the President's campaign trail proposals of 10% on the whole world and 50% on China [14] - The US anticipates framework announcements by July 9th, with countries potentially offering concessions to maintain lower tariff rates and increase access to US goods [15] China Trade Relations - The future of China tariffs depends on concessions made by the Chinese government [19] - The Phase One trade deal in 2019 included chapters on intellectual property and market access, but the Chinese walked away from it [18][19]