Deficit & Debt Concerns - Investors initially anticipated government spending cuts and a 3% deficit-to-GDP ratio, but the reconciliation bill raises questions about deficit impact over the next 10 years [1] - The market has largely priced in the reconciliation bill, with concerns about deficits existing for years [4][5] - Investors are uncertain about the duration and form of tariffs, which could significantly offset the bill's cost, potentially raising 27 trillion (2.7%) in revenue over 10 years [2][3] Entitlement Programs & Future Fiscal Challenges - Social Security trust fund insolvency is projected in the early 2030s, requiring Congress to either cut retiree benefits by approximately 25% or find ways to make the fund solvent [6] - Addressing long-term deficits will likely require a moment that forces Congressional action, rather than preventative measures, due to political considerations [7] Political & Voter Perspectives - American voters do not currently view deficits as a top concern, which impacts politicians' prioritization of the issue [8]
Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill: What Investors Should Know About the Tax Plan
The Wall Street Journal·2025-07-01 16:17