The 'Halftime' Investment Committee debate how to play stocks in the second half

Fiscal Policy & Legislation - Senate passed the Trump mega bill, heading to the House with potential votes as soon as tomorrow, aiming for the president's desk by July 4th [2] - Last-minute changes to the bill include the potential removal of the excise tax on solar and wind [3] - The combination of the deficit impact from the budget bill and tariffs appears to be neutral, according to the CBO [15][16] Bond Market & Interest Rates - The 10-year Treasury yield at 427 basis points is viewed positively, suggesting growth without hyperinflation or uncontrolled deficit [12][15] - Goldman Sachs raises its 2025 Fed rate cut forecast to three from one (September, October, and December) due to smaller-than-expected tariff effects [16] - A September 18th Fed rate cut is anticipated, driven by the expectation that inflation will not spike in June and July [20] Currency & International Markets - The weakness in the dollar is a significant trend, powering investor portfolios forward through international stock exposure [6] - International stocks have been outperforming US stocks, with a 126 percentage points gap through Friday, marking the widest gap in 24 years [8] - Even stripping out the effect of the weak US dollar, international stocks are still up 11% year-to-date, driven by earnings growth in regions like South Korea and Europe [9] Company Specific - General Motors (GM) is being re-evaluated due to potential adjustments to trade rules, with the market possibly anticipating higher earnings and a higher multiple [13]