What the Onchain Data Says About Crypto's Next Move

Market Analysis & Investment Thesis - The market sentiment suggests altcoins are currently undervalued and potentially poised for a rally, despite prevailing skepticism [46][49] - Bitcoin's price is range-bound due to existing holders selling, necessitating new money inflow for a breakout [22][23] - Long-term Bitcoin holder supply is at all-time highs, indicating a strong base for potential future price appreciation [34][36] - Illiquid Bitcoin supply is also at an all-time high, suggesting strong holder conviction and a solid foundation [37][38] On-Chain Metrics & Valuation - ETH and Solana are trading near their cost basis, suggesting fair value and potential buying opportunities [64][66] - ETH's market cap has historically bottomed when touching the ecosystem's Total Value Locked (TVL), indicating a potential floor [74][75] - ETH is currently trading just below its 4-year moving average, historically a good buying zone [80][81] - Pepe, as a high-beta asset, may outperform ETH, with its Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio indicating a potential buying opportunity [88][90] Altcoin & DeFi Projects - Athena (ENA) is a yield-bearing stablecoin with a reflexive mechanism tied to ETH's funding rates, presenting a bull market play [104][105] - Athena's stablecoin supply could potentially reach $20 billion, contingent on open interest in Ethereum, which may drive token rally [120] Macroeconomic Factors & Liquidity - Global liquidity is a key driver for crypto markets, with potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and fiscal spending being key factors to watch [139][150] - Historical data shows an inverse correlation between the Fed funds rate and ETH price, suggesting potential upside for ETH when rates decrease [153][154]