BCA's Marko Papic says It's dangerous to be bearish right now for this reason

Market & Economic Outlook - The bond market has largely priced in the current fiscal situation, suggesting that a massive bond bearish environment may be overstated [1] - The US is perceived to be moving towards fiscal consolidation, despite consensus views to the contrary [1] - The market is pushing for rate cuts, influenced by factors such as the labor market and potentially President Trump [3] - Dollar decline tends to be stimulative for the economy [3] Fiscal Policy & Deficit - The recent bill is expected to slightly increase the deficit over the next 10 years, but the impact may be offset by revenue from tariffs [1] - Extending the 2017 tax cut is estimated to cost $4.5 trillion and is not considered particularly stimulative [1] - Post-pandemic US fiscal spending was unprecedented, matching levels during World War II and exceeding other major economies by four times [1] Monetary Policy - The Fed potentially has 450 basis points worth of cuts to enact [4] - The market may respond more to anticipated future actions (the "shadow chair") than to the current Fed chair's actions [5] US vs UK - The US differs from the UK due to a wider international appetite for US bonds, contingent on trade negotiations [1]