US Political & Economic Landscape - The US political system is perceived to be transforming, with concerns about slavish devotion to a leader and Washington potentially turning into Pyongyang [1] - There's a sense that the US is politically not the same country it was a few years ago, impacting the entire international system [1] - Public opinion is largely negative towards current legislation, even with deliberate obfuscation of its impact [25] - The US stock market may be detached from the economic reality, potentially driven by corporate profit expectations in a favorable regime [15] International Order & Global Economy - The traditional global order is being tested, with the US potentially abdicating its leadership role [1][3] - The world may be moving towards a "world order minus one," where the US is excluded due to its current political climate [3] - There's an opportunity for other countries, like China and the EU, to take on leading roles in trade, climate action, and global governance [5][6][7] - The US dollar has fallen about 10% since the start of the year, a phenomenon typically seen in emerging markets [17] Risks & Uncertainties - There are concerns about the stability of the US system, with potential for unfair elections and the creation of a massive secret police force [2] - The US is potentially setting itself up for a financial crisis due to deregulation, irresponsible fiscal policy, and pressure on the Federal Reserve [31][33] - There's a risk of runaway inflation if the Federal Reserve becomes too politicized and attempts to goose up the economy for political gain [34]
The Wolf-Krugman Exchange: Testing economic guardrails | FT Podcasts
Financial Timesยท2025-07-02 21:06