July seasonality is really positive, says 3Fourteen's Warren Pies

Market Outlook & Strategy - The firm maintains an overweight position in equities since early May [1][2] - Positive July seasonality, especially after strong May and June gains (greater than 5%), suggests continued market strength [3] - Expects the rate of the rally to slow down after July [5] Earnings & Fundamentals - Earnings estimates have come down more than necessary due to tariff concerns, potentially creating a lower bar for companies to surpass in the second half of the year [6] Fiscal Policy Impact - The US is running 6-7% deficits, which equates to 6-7% unfunded money creation into the economy, serving as a backbone for the economy and market [7] - Fiscal stimulus is a significant factor supporting the market, even with struggles in areas like home building and housing [8] Investment Flows - Systematic bids that were forced out during the VA event in April are getting back in [5][6]