Market Risk & Trade Tensions - The market faces headline risk due to uncertainty in trade negotiations, despite an implicit extension, with potential for the administration to take a firm stance on trade with key partners like Japan and South Korea [1][2] - The market, previously exhibiting low volatility (VIX sub 16), is vulnerable due to its position near all-time highs and lightly positioned investors who are still overweight in equities [2] - Wall Street economists are expected to analyze the impact of imputed tariffs, which do not include sectoral tariffs on industries like steel, suggesting a broader potential impact [3][4] - The market's current reaction to tariff announcements is muted compared to previous instances, possibly due to a belief that the tariff issue is not serious and will be resolved later [4][5] Policy & Economic Impact - The market previously sold off due to trepidation and policy chaos, but recovered when authorities "blinked," possibly due to concerns about the bond market and rising interest rates, with the 10-year Treasury yield around 4-44% [6] - Strategists will need to assess the implications of across-the-board tariffs, potentially around 15%, while the Federal Reserve seems concerned about economic growth and has lowered its expectations [7] - Tariffs, if implemented, will impact the supply chain, exporters, consumers, or companies, ultimately slowing growth, even if the market anticipates a resolution or delay [8] - The administration might pursue tariffs more aggressively given the stock market's all-time highs and stable interest rates [8][9]
'Fast Money' traders talk the impact of latest tariff news on the markets
CNBC Television·2025-07-07 21:50