How America's Debt Spiral Could Spark The Next Crisis

U.S. Fiscal Situation & Debt Concerns - The U.S federal budget is on an unsustainable path, potentially leading to rapid financial instability if spending issues are not addressed [1] - America's borrowing levels are currently the same size as the entire economy and are expected to skyrocket [2] - There is a greater than 50% chance of experiencing a financial trauma related to the deficit or debt levels within three years if the issues are not addressed [11] - The U.S is expected to spend nearly $1 trillion on interest payments this year due to soaring debt and higher rates [24] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) expects net interest costs in 2025 to surpass spending on Medicare, Medicaid, and national defense [24] - The cost to service the U.S debt is expected to be 18% of total tax revenue this year, compared to less than 10% in 2022 [25] Potential Consequences & Risks - Unsustainable fiscal policy could lead to a collapse in fixed income and bond markets within 20 years [8][9] - The U.S may resort to printing money to cover its debt, potentially leading to inflation [10] - Rising borrowing costs could negatively affect the health and growth of the U.S economy [23][24] - Unchecked debt levels risk leaving a weaker economy to future generations [30] International Implications - International holdings of U.S treasuries were near a record $9 trillion in April [40] - China, while one of the largest foreign holders of U.S treasuries, has been steadily reducing its holdings [39][40] - Japan holds more than $1 trillion worth of U.S debt, the most of any foreign country [42]