Real Tariffs Impact Likely Months Away: 3-Minute MLIV

Tariff Impact on Copper and US Businesses - A potential 50% tariff on copper is under consideration, which could significantly impact US copper prices differently from global prices [1] - The long-term cost to US businesses from tariffs is expected to be very damaging, especially given the difficulty in substituting copper and the time required to build up US refining resources [2] - US businesses are already experiencing higher prices due to tariffs [2] Macroeconomic View and Policy Uncertainty - US companies are expected to face increasing costs of business under the current administration, despite potential positive tax benefits [3] - Policy uncertainty surrounding tariffs is damaging and will take a long time to fully materialize [3] - This policy uncertainty may contribute to US stocks underperforming over the next couple of years [3] - There is a lack of clarity regarding the end date or final level of tariffs [4] Market Reaction and Data Dependence - The market's reaction to tariff headlines has diminished compared to a few months ago [4][5] - Market participants are waiting for hard data to assess the actual impact of tariffs [5][6][7] - The impact of tariffs is not yet reflected in the data, suggesting a delay of two to three months before the effects are felt [7][8] Emerging Markets - Emerging markets are viewed positively in a dollar depreciation environment [9]