Next Fed chair pick likely to move market less, says Jefferies' Zervos

Federal Reserve Leadership & Monetary Policy - The market is closely watching potential candidates to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed chair, including Hasset and Fed Governor Kevin Warsh [1][2][3] - The candidates are generally viewed as having similar thoughts on monetary policy, potentially limiting market impact [3] - The President believes rates are 3 percentage points too high [4] Monetary Policy Stance - The market views current monetary policy as restrictive, considering the balance sheet size relative to the economy's size pre-COVID [5][6] - The Fed funds rate was 100 basis points higher when the Fed previously cut rates [6] - PCE inflation was down 0.5 percentage points and unemployment was up 0.5 percentage points during the prior rate cut [7] Potential Rate Cut Controversy - A prior 50 basis point rate cut was perceived by some as being too close to the election [8][9] - A 25 basis point cut was considered more appropriate by some [8][9] - Candidates need a cogent reason for lowering rates, potentially using the balance sheet as justification [11] - Kevin Warsh has suggested using the balance sheet to push for lower rates [11]