Rockefeller's Greg Fleming: Investors need to worry about the inflation effect of tariffs

Economic Resilience and Uncertainty - The American economy demonstrates resilience despite uncertainty [3] - Uncertainty has settled, influencing market reactions, but the economy is still holding [3] - A Ben Franklin close (pros and cons analysis) is relevant for decision-making [3][4] Fiscal Policy and Business Impact - Companies have certainty regarding tax rates and 100% expensing of equipment [4] - Deregulation and AI are also factors influencing the economy [4] - The budget is settled, providing certainty, despite positives and negatives [6] Tariffs and Inflation - Tariff uncertainty is a key consideration [6] - There is more certainty on the tariff side compared to April [7] - Several months of tariff revenue have amounted to $25 billion to $30 billion [7] - The pricing effect of tariffs is working its way through, but the impact on consumer behavior is not yet significant [8] - Inflationary effects remain a concern [8] - Different entities along the value chain absorb different pieces of the tariff impact [9] - Lower gas prices (under $3) are a significant positive [9] Federal Reserve (The Fed) Policy - The Fed is expected to wait on interest rate adjustments due to inflation concerns [10] - The Fed aims to avoid stagflation [10] - The Fed needs to ensure that any rate adjustments do not lead to renewed inflation [10][11] - Current data does not indicate significant inflation [11]