TD Cowen's Andrew Charles: It will be hard to circumvent Brazil coffee tariffs if implemented

Tariff Impact - President Trump announced a 50% blanket tariff on Brazil, effective August 1st, impacting coffee-related stocks [1] - Brazil is the largest coffee exporter to the United States, accounting for approximately 22% of US coffee imports in 2024 and averaging around 20% over the past five years [1][3] - TD Cowen estimates a 1.5 to 2 percentage point impact on profitability for Starbucks and Dutch Bros if no mitigation efforts are implemented [4] Mitigation Strategies - Coffee companies are expected to avoid pricing increases to protect traffic in a fragile consumer environment [4] - Companies may seek alternative coffee blends from other markets and explore efficiencies in their vertically integrated manufacturing processes to absorb costs [4][5] Consumer Behavior & Market Trends - Coffee shops offer an "experience" beyond just the coffee itself, contributing to their appeal [7] - Coffee shops are gaining market share, driven by the popularity of iced beverages, with Starbucks seeing over 66% of beverage sales from iced drinks in 2024 and Dutch Bros exceeding 80% [8] - The coffee shop industry's loyalty programs and digital innovations contribute to consumer stickiness and convenience [9] - A generational shift is occurring, with Gen Z preferring to purchase coffee outside the home [10] Stock Performance - Starbucks shares are down approximately 0.5%, while Dutch Bros shares are up approximately 0.25% [11]