Market Analysis & Trends - Bitcoin's having occurs approximately every four years, influencing market cycles [1][2] - Having cycles 1 and 3 saw no price drops below the having day price, while cycles 2 and 4 experienced drawdowns of about 15-20% [3][4] - Bitcoin is currently around day 439 of the cycle, suggesting the bare market may begin in approximately 100 days, based on the last two cycles [6] ROI & Diminishing Returns - Diminishing returns have been observed in each Bitcoin cycle [8][11] - In previous cycles, ROI decreased: Cycle 1 (92x), Cycle 2 (30x), Cycle 3 (8x); current cycle is below 2x [14] - At a similar point in previous cycles, Bitcoin's price increase from the having was approximately 4x in the second to last cycle and 550% in the cycle before that [11] Investment Considerations - Strategic reserves and ETFs exist, but a larger market cap requires exponentially more volume to move the price [11] - Tempering expectations is advised, as diminishing returns may continue despite new market factors [12]
Bitcoin: ROI After Halving
Benjamin Cowenยท2025-07-14 00:00