China Rides Out Tariff Rollercoaster, EU Retaliation Pause, Bitcoin Pops

Trade War & Tariffs - US President threatens 30% tariffs on EU and Mexico if better trade terms are not agreed by August 1 [1][4][46] - Brussels delays retaliatory tariffs while negotiations with the US continue [1][46] - A 30% tariff rate could disrupt trade between the EU and US [12][77] - EU is considering engaging with other nations hit by US tariffs to counter the threats [9][76] - The EU Foreign Ministers are meeting to discuss progress on trade talks [76][78] Market Impact & Economic Outlook - Stocks fall as trade war escalates, with investors bracing for data on tariff impacts [1][46] - European markets are down, impacted by the possibility of European tariffs going up to 30% on August 1 [3][12] - A 30% tariff could be a "real challenge" for European manufacturers and could tip the Euro Zone into a recession [13][14][15] - Germany's growth is already flat, and a 30% tariff could lead to negative growth [16] Monetary Policy & Fiscal Policy - Markets are focused on the physical outlook, with Germany having a solid footing with debt GDP around 65% [19] - There is a likelihood of a more dovish shift from the ECB due to the risks around growth and weakening trade relationships [25] - The market is underpricing the risk of the Fed chair being forcibly removed or dismissed [93] China's Economy & Trade - China's export growth has accelerated, driven by demand and helped by the trade war truce with the US [28] - China had a $590 billion surplus in the first theft of the year, which will help drive growth [28] - Companies worldwide are trying to buy as much Chinese products as they can due to price deflation [31] Panama & International Relations - Panama was removed from the EU's list of high-risk regimes [33][34] - Panama's relationship with the US is "very good," with close cooperation on commerce and security [36][37] - There is "no Chinese influence" in Panama or the Panama Canal [38][39][40] Renewable Energy & India - India is making strides in clean energy to reduce reliance on fossil fuels, which account for 5% of GDP in imports [55] - The Indian clean energy sector is mostly domestically focused, with a 6% annual growth in the electricity system [57] - The Indian government is taking a strategic view to localize the manufacturing of clean energy equipment [62][63]