US Equities Face Earnings Test | Open Interest 7/14/2025

Market Trends & Trade - President Trump threatens a 30% tariff on imports from the E_U_ and Mexico, but keeps the door open for a deal [1] - The E_U_ will hold off on its own retaliation until August 1 to allow negotiations to continue [1] - Japan and Canada could be used for potential coordination between the nations against the U_S_ [1] - The 30% tariff is much lower than the 50% tariff the Trump administration had been threatening [1] Monetary Policy & Fed - The White House continues to criticize the renovations happening for the Fed, with estimated costs rising to $2_5 billion this year, up from $1_9 billion in 2023 [1] - The September rate cut only has approximately a 65% chance, and the White House is putting pressure on Fed Chair Powell [6] - The market is not going to like it if Powell is fired, and a selloff in the dollar is expected [6] Earnings Season & Corporate Performance - Wall Street braces for the weakest earnings season since mid-2023, with analysts expecting profit growth of 2_3% [2] - Banks are expected to post a 9% decline year over year in earnings [2] - The Magnificent 7 stocks are expected to post a 14% rise in profit from the second quarter [2] - Kraft Heinz is preparing to break itself up to combat shifting consumer sentiment [3] Cryptocurrency - Crypto stocks are soaring with the all-time high in Bitcoin, trading above $120,000 [1][3] - The House will vote this week on the Clarity and Genius Acts to solidify the use of crypto [3] - Bitcoin is breaking into the world's most valuable assets [3]