Why El-Erian thinks “it’s a 50-50” Reagan or Carter moment in the U.S. economy.

Economic Outlook - The US is potentially undergoing a systemic shift, drawing comparisons to both the "Reagan moment" (positive change) and the "Jimmy Carter moment" (stagflation/recession) [1] - Market sentiment regarding the US economic trajectory has been volatile, fluctuating between an 80% probability of a "Reagan moment" at the beginning of the year, dropping below 50% by April, and currently residing around 70% [2] - There is an approximate 50/50 chance of either a positive transformation or stagflation/recession in the US [2] Market Dynamics - The US market's significant fluctuations are unusual given its mature institutions and diversified economy [2]