NASDAQ and Bitcoin hit all-time highs

Market & Tariff Impact - Market may be underestimating the impact of ongoing tariff disputes [1] - Average tariff for imported goods has likely increased to the mid-teens percentage range, but negotiations are ongoing [2] - Base case scenario anticipates tariffs settling around 12-13%, close to levels seen around April 9th [3] - Select international opportunities exist in EM (particularly India) due to less tariff exposure and growth, and Japan due to financials benefiting from higher rates and inflation [4] - Europe is experiencing earnings downgrades after a strong rally, suggesting a need for selectivity in international investments [5] Monetary Policy & Economic Outlook - Deutsche Bank expects four rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (the Fed) over the next 11 months, with the first cut anticipated in the fourth quarter [6][7] - The US is currently facing dual deficits, with a budget deficit around 7% and a current account deficit around 5-6% [7] - Maintaining Fed independence is crucial to avoid foreign buyers questioning the US dollar and US dollar-denominated assets [8] - The president is expected to nominate a Fed chair in September, which will likely be the dominant narrative for the Fed in the coming months [8]