Dollar Has Lose-Lose Setup Out of US CPI: 3-Minute MLIV

Dollar Analysis - The market is consistently attempting to identify a bottom for the dollar, but a substantial dollar rebound is not anticipated [5] - Any upward movement in the dollar is expected to be short-lived [6] - Reserve managers globally are still overexposed to the dollar due to unhedged purchases of US stocks, which could lead to further dollar selling during any rebound [7][8] - The Fed is perceived to be under pressure to maintain an accommodative policy relative to inflation, which is viewed negatively for the dollar [2][3][4] Stock Market Outlook - Short-term, a positive fiscal environment and favorable macro data suggest a bullish outlook for stocks, although gains may be moderate and volatile [9] - Earnings season is expected to support the stock market in the short term due to lowered expectations [10] - By August, a weakening in stock prices is anticipated [10] Economic Factors - CPI data will influence the dollar's value in the coming weeks, particularly concerning pressure on the Federal Reserve from the administration [2] - The impact of tariffs is considered a significant driver, but the specifics of implementation remain uncertain in the short term [8]