NASDAQ closes at fresh record high

Market Sentiment and Strategy - The market sentiment is mixed, with some optimism, but hedge funds and big money institutions have largely missed the rally, suggesting potential for further gains [2] - A slight market pullback in the second half of July would be normal [2][3] - Carson Group maintains an overweight position in equities, expecting any inflation effects from tariffs to be manageable [4] - The firm has been overweight equities since the beginning of 2023 and did not cut targets during the summer rally [5] Portfolio Allocation - Carson Group has diversified its portfolio by shifting from being very overweight in the US to increasing exposure in developed international markets, particularly Europe [5] - The firm is heavily invested in large-cap stocks, anticipating they will outperform small-caps in the second half of the year [5] - Europe is a key focus, driven by Germany's increased spending following fiscal policy changes in March [6] Investment Themes - The firm believes that fiscal deficits historically lead to higher corporate profits and a better stock market, a trend observed in both Europe and the US [7] - The AI theme is considered alive and well, justifying overweighting large-cap stocks with significant tech exposure [8][9][10] - Carson Group favors financials, technology, and industrials, along with momentum ETFs, for the second half of the year [10][11]