Renaissance's Neil Dutta talks today's inflation data and why recession signals have not gone away

Inflation & Tariffs Impact - CPI rose 27% last month, core CPI increased by 29%, potentially indicating tariffs are impacting the economy [1] - Core goods inflation, excluding autos, rose approximately 03% in June, suggesting a tariff impact [2] - If prices are up 03% and sales are up 03%, real spending on goods is declining in America [3] Economic Slowdown & Recession Risk - The analyst maintains a reasonable expectation of a potential recession [2][5] - Labor markets are cooling, with hourly earnings not rising at a particularly strong rate [4] - Consumer spending will likely moderate due to slowing disposable income growth [6] - The housing market may already be in recession, with prices declining in major markets [8][9] - State and local governments are tightening their belts, exemplified by layoffs [9] Key Indicators to Watch - Employment and income growth are crucial indicators for assessing the consumer and the overall economy [10][11] - Declining home prices, the most important asset for many consumers, signal potential economic slowdown [11]