Goldman's Ben Snider: Market will likely have a catch-up trade, more than continued outperformance

Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs Research anticipates tariff rates to continue climbing throughout the year [2] - The market is pricing in a gradual increase in tariffs, with companies managing margins and sustaining earnings growth [3] - Continued earnings growth is considered the most important factor for the market [3] - There's a possibility of companies passing on tariff costs, potentially leading to a slight increase in inflation [3][4] - The S&P 500 target is 6,600 by year-end, representing approximately 5% upside [5] Risk Assessment - The biggest risk to the market is interest rates, with uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's actions [5] - Elevated uncertainty means the distribution of risks for asset prices is still pretty wide [6] Sector Performance - AI software basket is up more than 30% year-to-date, with a continued strong outlook [6] - Market breadth is narrow, with the median S&P 500 company still more than 10% below its high [7][8] - A catch-up in market performance is more likely than a continuation of the current outperformance [8]