Worldwide Exchange: ETF Flows Week of July 14

ETF Market Inflows and Trends - Year-to-date net inflows into ETFs reach $623 billion, on track for another trillion-dollar year [2] - The industry is potentially heading towards $1.3 trillion in flows for the entire year, driven by low-cost and active strategies [3] - Stronger sector flows observed in the past three months compared to the prior three months, indicating tactical adjustments and improving sentiment [3][4] Communication Services ETFs (XLC) - Increased inflows driven by price and fundamental momentum, with the sector outperforming the broader market [4] - Communication services is the only sector with increased earnings estimates over the last three months, largely due to AI [5] - Beneficiary of the "one big beautiful bill act" due to high R&D expenditure that can be expensed at a higher rate, boosting cash flow [5] - Considered a safe haven due to its service-oriented nature, making it less impacted by tariffs [5] Small Cap ETFs - July saw $2 billion of outflows, contributing to net outflows year-to-date, reflecting a less robust economic outlook [6] - Small caps face challenges due to below-trend growth expected in 2025 and 2026, high interest costs, and significant debt financing [6][7] - Small caps have experienced negative earnings growth over the last three years, contrasting with the sizable positive earnings growth of large caps [7] - Sentiment favors large caps with AI tech benefits, higher cash flow, and less debt service, making them less tied to the economic cycle [8] ETF Recommendations for Current Market - Communication Services ETF (XLC) is recommended due to fundamental momentum, high earnings expectations, cash flow, earnings revisions, and limited tariff exposure [11][12] - Aerospace and Defense ETF (XR) is suggested due to macro momentum from increased defense spending driven by geopolitical conflicts [12][13]