Expect 100 BP of rate cuts in next year: JPMorgan's Santos

Market Sentiment & Policy Impact - Investor sentiment indicates complacency regarding potential risks [1] - Policy is no longer the primary market driver, earnings results are regaining importance [2] - Policy changes, especially tariff policies, are expected to impact earnings for retail and consumer-oriented companies with overseas suppliers [2] - The market has largely priced in the worst-case tariff scenarios, but the actual impact remains uncertain [3][4] Earnings & Inflation - Earnings expectations for the S&P 493 (excluding the Magnificent Seven) have been cut in half since April, potentially overpricing tariff impacts [5] - Companies are beating lowered expectations, but guidance on supply chain shifts and pricing power is crucial for the second half of the year [6] - A moderate level of CPI inflation is necessary to indicate companies' ability to pass on tariff increases (50-60%) to consumers [7] Fiscal Policy & Investment - The tax and budget bill acts as a stimulus, offsetting some of the negative impacts of tariff increases on consumers [8][9] - Immediate expensing and accelerated depreciation may lead companies to pull forward CapEx and R&D investments [10] - $7 trillion in money market assets could potentially shift into longer-dated fixed income or riskier assets like equities [11] Fixed Income & Rate Cuts - Expect approximately 100 basis points (1%) or four cuts of 25 basis points (0.25%) by the Federal Reserve over the next 12 months [12][14] - The feed-through of tariffs to consumer price inflation is happening more gradually than expected, causing the Fed to remain in a "wait and see" mode [15] - The focus should be on the all-in yield in securitized debt, municipal bonds, and high yield, rather than timing credit spread improvements or rate cuts [16]