Buy homebuilder stocks, when sentiment is lousy, says Smead Capital's Bill Smead

Market Concerns & Risks - The inflation-adjusted PE ratio matches the peak of the dot-com bubble, indicating potential overvaluation [2] - The 10 largest cap companies are more expensive than during the dot-com bubble, suggesting caution in owning these stocks [2] - Historically high spread between 30-year mortgage rates and 10-year Treasury yields adds uncertainty [7] - Cyclically adjusted PE ratio (Shiller PE ratio) broke records, historically leading to poor S&P returns over 3-5 years [10][11] - S&P 500's momentum may reverse, hurting the largest cap stocks due to index selling [11][12] Investment Opportunities - Small-cap companies (around $10 billion) are attractive due to lack of liquidity and being undervalued [5] - Homebuilder stocks are attractive when sentiment is low due to anticipatory nature of the market [6] - Energy and healthcare sectors may offer better investment opportunities [4] - Companies punished for mistakes (e.g., Target, Merck) may present opportunities [5] Company Specifics - Smeed Capital Management sold Berkshire Hathaway due to premium associated with Buffett's involvement and its large-cap nature [9] - Thermo Fisher's earnings were better than feared, suggesting potential undervaluation in the healthcare space [8]