Equity markets are full steam ahead for the next 3-4 weeks, says New York Life's Lauren Goodwin

Market Outlook - The equity market is expected to perform strongly in the next three to four weeks due to better-than-expected Q2 economic data and unrealized worst-case scenario risks [2] - AI supply chain support is contributing to market broadening [2] - The market is expected to continue climbing the "wall of worry" in the near term [2] Risks and Concerns - Tariff risks are expected to manifest in economic data over the next few quarters [2] - Tightening labor supply due to immigration policies poses a risk to the market's interest rate sensitivity in the second half of the year [6] - Inflation is expected to accelerate in Q3 and Q4 due to new and holiday ordering, and the clearing of pre-tariff inventory backlogs [5] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve (Fed) might cut rates once this year, despite data suggesting they could have already cut twice [7] - Moderate tariffs are considered more inflationary than severe tariffs because they allow companies to pass on higher costs or absorb margin hits without demand destruction [9][10][11] - Tightening labor supply will likely cause the unemployment rate to move lower in the second half of the year [11] - Easy financial conditions, including strong equity markets and tight credit spreads, suggest the Fed does not need to cut rates assertively [12]