Market Sentiment & Monetary Policy - The market, including the stock and bond markets, appears largely unconcerned with current political rhetoric and potential policy changes [4][6] - The volatility index is at a level not seen in a long time, suggesting market complacency [4] - The CME Fed funds tracker implies only about a 40% chance of a further 25 basis points rate cut in September [5] - There is a disconnect between the indices and individual company reports, suggesting a potential correction [6] - Monetary policy may take a backseat in the near future [6] Interest Rates & Debt - The bond market has been relatively complacent despite uncertainties surrounding the Fed and increasing debt issuance [7] - The White House desires lower rates to reduce funding costs, envying the Biden administration's lower debt funding costs [8][9] - The zero interest rate policy is over, and funding at the short end of the curve may not be attractive [10] - A 50 basis points cut on $15.5 trillion of refinancing would only save about $75 billion in interest expense [11] - Lowering the Fed rate may not necessarily impact the long end of the curve or housing costs [13][14] Economic Outlook - The US economy is resilient, with unemployment near record lows and GDP tracking around pre-pandemic levels [3] - The market uptrend has been generally unabated since November 22, with the NASDAQ up almost 37% from April 8 lows [18][19]
'Fast Money' traders talk what the feud between the White House and Fed means for markets
CNBC Televisionยท2025-07-24 21:51