Peak Tariff Optimism Is New Market Worry: 3-Minute MLIV

Market Sentiment & Trade Agreements - The market views the trade deal with Europe positively, considering "deal is better than no deal" [1][2] - Agreements with the US, such as those with Japan and Europe, have led to market rallies in those countries [2] - Increased certainty regarding trade and tariffs is boosting equities, despite longer-term economic risks [3] - The stock market is reacting positively to growing clarity on Trump's tariff agenda [4] Volatility & Risk Assessment - The VIX (implied volatility index) is at a low of sub 15, the lowest since February, suggesting market complacency [5] - Despite low implied volatility, significant event risk exists, including trade talks with China, earnings reports, and central bank meetings [6] - Analysts are discreetly recommending hedging strategies in options and bond markets to protect against potential drawdowns [7] China Market Perspective - Continuation of trade talks is seen as a positive for China, avoiding escalation and tariff increases [8] - Analyst reports from China indicate optimism and a potential bull market in Chinese equities [9]