Former Bridgewater CIO Rebecca Patterson: Biggest earnings takeaway is that consumer is holding up

Consumer & Economy - US consumer is holding in pretty well, supported by bank earnings, and consumer health is crucial as it represents approximately 69% of the economy [1][2] - Executive sentiment regarding future prospects is more important than backward-looking data, as it will drive corporate activity in the next 6 months and impact the broader macro view [3][4] Market Sentiment & Valuation - Market exhibits bullishness, especially among retail investors, indicated by the resurgence of meme stocks, crypto, and SPACs, requiring close monitoring [5] - Current valuations appear stretched relative to historical data, but valuations are more useful on a 5 to 10-year horizon [4][5] US-China Trade - US relies on China for rare earth minerals, potentially for another decade before achieving self-sufficiency [6] - China needs US chips, and US needs its chip and AI companies to thrive for wealth creation, suggesting a need for compromise between both countries [7] Fed Independence & Monetary Policy - Reduction of Fed independence could lead to a weaker currency, higher inflation, and higher long-term yields, as seen in other countries [10][11] - The market is closely watching potential dissents within the Fed, as two governors dissenting is not common and could impact rate volatility [13] - There is disagreement on whether the economy needs a rate cut, with some arguing that the stock market's all-time high suggests rates are not overly restrictive [15] Inflation & Tariffs - There is a risk of higher inflation in the second half of the year, potentially jeopardizing expectations of two Fed rate cuts by January [19] - The impact of tariffs on consumer prices is uncertain, with a possibility of increased tariff impact due to wound-down inventories and stricter government regulations on transshipments [17][18] AI & Productivity - The Fed's ability to model the productivity gains from AI over the next 18 to 24 months is questionable, making it difficult to set appropriate Fed funds rate [16] - Setting monetary policy based on uncertain AI productivity gains is considered nonsensical [17]