Trump's efforts with China are unlikely to end in a grand deal, says BridgePark's Stefan Selig

Trade Talk Expectations - The most likely outcome of the US-China trade talks is a continuation of dialogue, an extension of the trade truce, and a potential fall meeting between the presidents [2][3] - A grand deal is unlikely even after a 90-day extension due to the need for structural reform in China's non-market economy [6] China's Economic Constraints - China's economy faces significant pressure, including a slowing economy, deflation, youth unemployment, a housing crisis, and demographic challenges [4] - These economic pressures weaken China's negotiating position [5] Trade Dynamics - China's exports to the US are down, but exports to other Asian countries are increasing significantly [7] - Approximately 17% of Chinese exports go to the United States, leaving 83% of the world for continued trade [7][8] - China and Canada are not analogous because Canada's exports mostly go to the United States [7] Structural Reform Challenges - Achieving a more balanced trading relationship with China requires structural reform, which will be difficult and time-consuming for China to implement [6] - Addressing overcapacity in industries like steel and electric vehicles would require provincial leaders to close factories and furlough large numbers of workers, posing a significant challenge [6]