Mizuho's Jared Holtz: UnitedHealth's trough earnings number is what we're all trying to see

UnitedHealth Group Outlook - Street is trying to understand the next 6-18 months, with less focus on 2025 [2] - Expectation of reintroduced guidance from UnitedHealth with a new CEO [2] - Potential earnings range of $18-$20 for the balance of the year or fiscal year 2025 may be sufficient [3] - Previous expectations for UnitedHealth were closer to the high $20s, now trying to determine the trough earnings number [4] - Focus is on price discovery and investor multiple on future earnings (2026, 2027, etc) [4] Pharmaceutical Tariff Implications - Potential tariff angle on big pharma is being considered [1][5] - Street is bracing for a potential 15%-25% tariff rate across the board for large-cap pharma [7] - Sector-wide tariff has been rumored for 6-8 weeks with no concrete action [7] - Clarity on tariffs could lead to a rally in pharma stocks [8] - Uncertainty remains regarding the administration's actions and clarity on pharmaceutical policies [9] Pharmaceutical Industry Challenges - Focus on bringing pharmaceuticals back to America [6] - Potential impact of most favored nations status [9] - Losses of exclusivity are well-documented challenges [10]