Sell The Buildup, Buy The War?

Investment Strategy - The market adage suggests selling into the buildup of a war and buying the invasion [1] - The rationale behind buying the invasion is that the actual event is often less severe than the worst-case scenarios imagined during the buildup [2] - The invasion is like "pulling off the band-aid," the anticipation of pain is worse than the event itself [2] Geopolitical Risk Assessment - The US is unlikely to intervene if it anticipates a prolonged conflict [2]