Big Tech earnings are biggest risk to equities this week, says Citi's Stuart Kaiser

Market Risks & Opportunities - The biggest risk to equity markets this week is the unemployment rate, particularly large-cap tech earnings, given high valuations and concentrated positioning [2] - Negative talk about earnings or capex guidance could create pressure [3] - Disruption in credit spreads and the long end of the yield curve are potential market disruptors [6] - International investors feel underweight in AI trade and US equities, representing a potential source of incremental demand [16] Labor Market & Fed Policy - A labor number repeating last month's performance (around 150 thousand jobs) with unemployment at 41% would be favorable [7] - The Fed is willing to cut rates in that environment if inflation cooperates [7] - A significant miss on labor data (below 75 thousand or 50 thousand jobs) is needed to notably lower the market [9] - An unemployment rate of 41% with friendly inflation creates a good macro environment, influencing debates on Fed rate cuts [8] Market Dynamics & Technicals - The market is rallying in a low-velocity way with underlying demand [10] - Approximately 12 trillion of stock buybacks are expected this year [10] - VIX term structure indicates awareness of potential landmines in the next three months [12] - Analog semis were underowned and have started to correct [15]