Adam Parker: Not a single call from institutional investors on trade this week

Market Sentiment & Trade - Institutional investors show decreased concern regarding trade issues, suggesting desensitization or acceptance of the current trade environment [1][2] - Major firms' chief risk officers are less worried about tariffs than in April, potentially indicating complacency as a risk [3] - Market pricing suggests a lower-than-expected impact on S&P earnings from tariffs [4] - The biggest risk remains the China part, but perceptions of a good relationship mitigate growth scare fears [5] Equity Market & Valuations - Some suggest the clock is ticking for a shakeout, and the market may be at its seasonal peak [5] - Equity valuations are higher than the 10-year historical average, currently at 225 compared to the average of 186 [6] - Earnings are less impaired than previously thought, with consensus numbers rising since the trough [7] - Valuation isn't a reliable predictor of returns in the short term (0-5 years), but may be relevant in the long term (5-10 years) [12] Economic Outlook & AI - The market is in an "innocent until proven guilty" mode regarding AI productivity's impact on earnings [10] - Changes to perception about growth and rates are likely to skew positive [9]