US-China trade talks: What to know from the latest meeting in Sweden

Trade Talk Status - US-China trade talks in Stockholm concluded with mixed signals, Trump acknowledged Monday was not good, but today was better [1] - The talks ended without a confirmed 90-day pause on tariffs, a key market expectation [2] - Treasury Secretary and Trade Representative will brief President Trump, who will decide on the pause [2][3] - Another talk is expected in about 90 days, renewing focus on the August 12th deadline for tariff snapback [3] China's Economic Position - China's economy is "swimming in place" despite tariffs, indicating resilience [4] - China possesses negotiating leverage, exemplified by rare earth export controls [4] - China feels confident in its position [4] Tariff Impact and Future Scenarios - Companies relying on China imports, like toy companies, are experiencing pain, expecting it to last until at least 2026 [6] - The challenge lies in the uncertainty of future tariff levels, hindering production movement [7] - Toys and games are the most exposed sector from a consumer perspective due to reliance on China imports [8] - Tariff rates from China are converging with rates from elsewhere, potentially reducing the incentive to move production [9][10] - A realistic worst-case scenario involves tariffs staying at 30%, potentially leading to empty shelves and inflationary impacts [18] - Tariffs could reach close to 50% when combined with previous trade war tariffs and sectoral tariffs [19] US Strategy and Potential Concessions - The US may offer concessions on export controls and fentanyl tariffs to secure a meeting between President Trump and President Xi [12] China's Compliance and Economic Management - China has previously fallen short on commitments to buy US exports [15] - China is managing the situation by maintaining stable economic numbers and implementing stimulus measures [21][22] - China has kept interest rates at historic lows and increased fiscal activity [21]