Data Will Matter More Than Fed Meeting: 3-Minute MLIV

Market Performance & Outlook - European equity market futures are uninspiring despite news and data releases [1] - Equities are expected to nudge slightly higher this week, surviving scheduled catalysts [2] - August is anticipated to be a volatile month with differentiation between countries [9] Key Economic Drivers - The Fed's path depends on tariffs' impact on consumer and economy, not dissent [4] - US earnings season has been relatively good, while Europe's is mixed, favoring US stocks [5] - US Q2 GDP data is crucial to compensate for a weak Q1 due to tariff front-loading [6] - Consumer spending remains strong, as indicated by retail sales and GDP data [5] Trade Deals & Global Impact - Trade deals with Brazil, Mexico, and Canada have deadlines coming on Friday [7] - Negative shocks are expected next week as countries without deals suffer competitive disadvantages [8] - The world is diversified, with winners and losers emerging over the next month [9] Currency Trends - The dollar is expected to continue to rally in the short term [10] - Longer term, dollar depreciation is still expected, but a reduced bounce is possible in the short term [10]