Private company hiring bounced back with a 104,000 increase in July, ADP says

Employment Data Analysis - ADP private payrolls increased by 104,000, exceeding the estimate of 64,000 and reversing the previous month's negative figure [1] - June's ADP private payrolls were revised upwards to -23,000 from the initial -33,000 [2] - Small businesses saw an increase of 12,000 jobs, recovering from declines in the prior two months [2] - Leisure and hospitality sectors added 46,000 jobs [2] - Financial activities increased by 28,000 jobs [3] - Trade, transportation, and utilities rose by 18,000 jobs [3] - Education and health services experienced a decrease of 38,000 jobs [3] Wage Trends - Job stayers saw wage gains remaining unchanged at +44% [3] - Individuals changing jobs experienced a 7% raise, up two-tenths from the previous month [4] Economic Outlook - ADP's chief economist suggests that hiring and pay data indicate a healthy economy, with employers optimistic about consumer resilience [4] - The consensus estimate for the upcoming jobs report is 100,000 [5] - There is an anticipated slight increase in the unemployment rate [5] ADP Data Reliability - ADP data has shown an average absolute miss of 92,000 in recent months [6] - Over the course of a year, ADP data aligns well with overall trends [6] - BLS revises data more frequently than ADP [6] - Federal employment reductions may impact overall job market figures [7]