Trump's Fed pick will follow orders from the White House, Paul Krugman says

Federal Reserve (The Fed) & Interest Rates - The biggest public misunderstanding about the Fed is the idea that lower interest rates are a reward for good economic behavior, rather than a tool to manage the economy [1][2][3] - The economy is confusing, with mixed signals from unemployment and inflation indicators, making a strong case for a rate move difficult [4][5] - There's no clear case for the Fed to move rates, and anyone confident about the correct move isn't paying attention [5] - The Fed's "transitory" inflation call was conceptually correct but numerically off, and criticisms of the Fed being behind the curve were wrong [7][8][9] - Politicizing the Fed is a clear intention, with potential for "Turkey-style" economic policy if political constraints were absent [13] Trade & Tariffs - The long-term effect of Trump's tariffs is estimated to reduce GDP by 04%, which is significant but not catastrophic [18][19] - Markets may be correctly concluding that the trade situation will settle down into a world of high tariffs, leading to a slightly poorer economy but not a depression [20][21] AI & Technology - AI, or rather large language models, are not truly "thinking" but statistically predicting responses based on existing knowledge [24][25] - Significant job displacement due to AI is possible, as many jobs don't require deep thinking [25] - It's possible to believe that some AI stock prices are in a bubble while also acknowledging that AI is a seriously important new technology [23]