Treasury counselor Joe Lavorgna: Data suggests labor market is actually quite healthy

Labor Market Analysis - Job numbers were lower than expected, with attention focused on revisions, potentially reflecting lower post-COVID response rates [1][2] - Income proxy remains solid, with income gains upwards of 5% based on the index of aggregate weekly payrolls [3] - Despite data revisions, other indicators like jobless claims and low layoff rates suggest a healthy labor market [6] - There's increased expectation of increased hiring in the next couple of months, indicating an upward trend [9] Economic Outlook - No recession risk is perceived, with a positive outlook due to completed trade deals [3] - Financial markets are forward-looking, and the historic recovery suggests a positive outlook for the second half of the year and beyond [8][9] - GDP rebounded sharply in the quarter, and the labor market does not respond that quickly [7][8] Trade and Tariffs - The US is collecting upwards of $300 billion in tariff revenue [12] - Trade deals have been made without significant inflation, as indicated by PPI, CPI, and import prices [12] - Market consolidation was anticipated after a significant move higher, even before the announcement that Dow futures fell 2% [11] Data Integrity Concerns - Job number revisions have been occurring over the last couple of years, raising questions about data reliability [4] - Response rates to surveys are voluntary and have fallen, contributing to data uncertainty [5] - Substantial revisions in state and local government data are puzzling, given the expectation of strong response rates [5]