Tariffs could raise the average cost of a single family home by $7,885: UBS

Cost Impact of Tariffs - UBS estimates tariffs could raise the average cost of building a single-family home by nearly $8,000 [1] - Of the $7,900 increase, $6,300 is due to reciprocal tariffs, $1,000 from Canadian lumber tariffs increasing from 145% to 35%, and $550 from copper [3] - The $7,900 increase represents approximately a 76% cost increase for an average family home [3] Builder Strategies and Market Dynamics - Builders, especially the top 16 which represent 50% of the market, are expected to push back on the value chain to offset costs [4] - The US lumber coalition claims it can handle 95% of what is being produced in Canada domestically, with US mills running at 60% to 65% capacity utilization [6][7] - An executive order aims to cut down 25% more timber [7] - A $68 trillion wealth transfer in the US is benefiting entry-level home buyers [8] Existing Home Market - Existing homes average 44 years old and may not be at the right price points, difficult to ensure, and rates cannot be bought down [10]