Stephanie Link: Expect market volatility for the next two months but setup into year-end is positive

Earnings and Market Performance - 66% of companies have reported earnings, with 82% beating on the top line and 68% beating on the bottom line [2] - Year-over-year growth is running at approximately 82% [2] - Market experienced a slight pullback after a 29% increase leading up to earnings reports [3] - Expectation of market volatility for the next two months, influenced by seasonal factors and Federal Reserve decisions [3] - Setup into the end of the year is anticipated to be positive, presenting opportunities in stocks like Caterpillar and Eaton [4] Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Policy - Market initially focused on growth concerns due to jobs numbers but recovered quickly [5] - A potential rate cut in September with a 42% unemployment rate would be a favorable scenario [5] - Non-farm payroll report is backward-looking; weekly jobless claims are a more forward-looking indicator [6] - The 4-week moving average of weekly jobless claims is at 220000, up from 200000 six months ago, but down from a recent spike to 245000 [6][7] - Economy is growing above trend at approximately 21% according to the Atlanta Fed tracker [8] - Above-trend growth and slightly higher inflation are preferable for equity portfolio management and earnings [8] Tariffs, Onshoring, and Capital Expenditure - Potential positive impacts of tariffs include increased manufacturing onshoring and reshoring [10] - Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon are projected to spend $400 billion on AI and capex this year [11]