NY Fed: Concern about job losses rises, confidence in finding a new job grows

Inflation Expectations - The New York Fed's inflation expectations rose for the one-year term to 3.1% [1] - The five-year inflation expectation, which the Fed is most concerned about, increased by three ticks to 2.9% [2] - Expectations for gas prices, medical care, college, and rent all declined [2] Unemployment Expectations - Unemployment expectations dropped 2.3 percentage points, reaching the lowest reading since January 2025 [2] - There is less concern about job loss, but paradoxically more concern about finding a job [3] Interest Rate Expectations - A rate cut for September is almost fully priced in [3] - October is also priced in, and December has been the swing factor with a 51% probability [3][4] Fed Chair Candidate - Chris Waller is considered a front runner to become Fed chair [4] - Waller has presented the most convincing economic monetary policy argument for a rate cut [5] - Many Fed watchers, investors, and fixed income folks would be happy with Chris Waller [5] - Waller has shown flexibility to disagree with the chair and agree with the president on the issue of rate cuts [6]